Location and date: Warsaw , Poland, 25-28 September 2025

Organizer: SGH Warsaw School of Economics

Description: The 9th International Conference on the Shadow Economy (SHADOW 2025) is a leading academic event dedicated to advancing the understanding of informality, non-observed economic activities, and their implications for policy and development. Organized by the Warsaw School of Economics, the conference brought together researchers, policymakers, and practitioners from across the world to exchange evidence, methodologies, and perspectives on measuring and addressing informal economies. Continuing a long-standing tradition initiated in 2009, SHADOW 2025 fostered a stimulating platform for dialogue on how digitalization, fiscal systems, and institutional reforms shape informal dynamics in both advanced and emerging economies.

IRDL’s Contribution:

Presentation: Shadow Markets in Broad Daylight: A Currency-Demand Atlas of the Shadow Economy in Central and Eastern Europe

The Informality Data Research Lab (IDRL) team, represented by Prof. Roberto Dell’Anno, PhD Diana Agafiței and Prof. Adriana Davidescu, presented an empirical study estimating the size and drivers of the informal economy in 13 Central and Eastern European countries (1996–2022). Using the Currency Demand Approach (CDA) within a dynamic panel PMG–ARDL framework, the analysis identified taxation as the main long-run driver, while stronger enforcement and financial inclusion curb informality. Through counterfactual simulations and Monte Carlo analysis, the study highlights realistic policy mixes to reduce shadow activity and support formalization and economic resilience.